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A data-driven guide to retail theft in the United States — covering shrinkage costs, shoplifting trends, organized retail crime, violence against retail workers, and what security strategies are working in 2026.
Retail theft has become one of the most urgent challenges facing brick-and-mortar retailers in the United States. The problem goes far beyond the occasional shoplifter: organized crime rings, increasingly violent offenders, and a gap between theft volume and law enforcement response have forced retailers to rethink their entire approach to security and loss prevention.
For retail managers, property owners, and security professionals, the statistics below provide a clear picture of the current threat landscape — and the data-backed case for investing in professional retail security and loss prevention services.
"Shrinkage" — the industry term for inventory loss from all causes — represents one of the largest controllable costs in retail. The numbers are staggering:
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. shoplifting losses (2024) | $45 billion | L.A. Darling/NRF |
| Global retail shrink (2024) | $132 billion (vs $112B in 2022) | Capital One via InVue |
| External theft share of shrinkage | 36% | NRF via Pinkerton |
The $45 billion figure for U.S. shoplifting alone is equivalent to the annual revenue of a mid-sized Fortune 500 company — lost entirely to theft. And that's just the external theft component; total shrinkage (including employee theft, administrative errors, and vendor fraud) pushes the number even higher.
Global retail shrink jumped from $112 billion in 2022 to a projected $132 billion in 2024 — an 18% increase in just two years. This acceleration reflects both rising theft rates and the increasing sophistication of retail criminals.
It's worth noting that the National Retail Federation (NRF) discontinued its 32-year annual shrink report in 2024 due to methodology concerns (Retail Dive). However, the NRF continues to publish its "Impact of Theft and Violence" report, which provides detailed data on shoplifting trends, ORC, and violence against retail workers.
The NRF's 2025 "Impact of Theft and Violence" report — based on surveys representing $1.3 trillion in annual sales (25.1% of total U.S. retail) — paints a clear picture of escalating theft:
An 18% year-over-year increase in shoplifting is not a minor fluctuation — it represents a fundamental shift in the retail threat landscape. Stores that once managed with minimal security are now finding that they cannot operate safely or profitably without professional security officers on the floor.
Perhaps the most alarming trend in retail theft isn't the volume of stolen goods — it's the escalating violence against store employees:
These numbers tell a story that goes far beyond inventory shrinkage. When 91% of retailers report increasing aggression, the conversation shifts from loss prevention to worker safety. Retail employees are increasingly afraid to confront shoplifters — and in many cases, company policies now prohibit them from doing so.
This is exactly where professional loss prevention officers fill the gap. Trained security personnel can deter theft through visible presence, intervene safely when incidents occur, and protect employees from the violence that increasingly accompanies shoplifting events.
"The conversations we're having with retail clients have changed completely in the past two years. It used to be about shrinkage numbers and inventory control. Now it's about employee safety. Store managers tell us their staff are afraid to come to work. When you have a professional security officer present, it changes the entire dynamic — shoplifters see a uniformed officer and most of them walk out before they even try anything."
— Amanda DeAlmeida, Executive Vice President, Building Security Services
Organized retail crime — coordinated, professional theft operations — has evolved into a sophisticated, multi-billion-dollar criminal enterprise:
| ORC Activity | Increase Reported |
|---|---|
| Phone scams | 70% increase |
| Digital/ecommerce fraud | 55% increase |
| Shoplifting (organized) | 52% increase |
| Cargo theft | 50% increase |
Source: NRF 2025 Impact of Theft and Violence Report
The involvement of transnational criminal organizations represents a fundamental escalation. These are not opportunistic shoplifters — they're organized operations that target specific high-value merchandise, use teams of boosters, and fence stolen goods through online marketplaces and resale networks. Combating ORC requires more than traditional loss prevention — it requires coordinated security strategies that include professional officers, surveillance, and intelligence sharing.
The NRF's 2025 report surveyed retailers representing $1.3 trillion in annual sales — roughly one-quarter of all U.S. retail (NRF). This isn't a small sample; it reflects the experiences of the nation's largest retailers across every category.
One of the most troubling findings in the NRF data is the massive gap between theft events and police reporting:
This creates a vicious cycle: retailers don't report because police don't respond; police don't prioritize retail theft because reported numbers appear low; and the problem continues to escalate. In this environment, retailers are increasingly relying on their own security resources rather than public law enforcement.
This is one reason why demand for private retail security officers has surged. When the public safety net has gaps, private security fills them — providing the visible deterrence, incident response, and documentation that police alone cannot deliver at scale.
Retailers are responding to the theft crisis by increasing investment in physical security measures. According to the NRF 2025 report, the top measures retailers have increased include:
Specific measures being deployed (NRF):
The trend is clear: retailers are shifting from reactive loss prevention to proactive security. Rather than counting losses after the fact, leading retailers are investing in measures that prevent theft and violence before they occur.
New York City's retail environment presents unique challenges — high foot traffic, dense urban locations, and proximity to transit hubs all create opportunities for retail crime.
For retailers operating in the NYC metro area, the combination of high volume, organized crime activity, and transit proximity means that professional security isn't a luxury — it's a business requirement. Mall security, in-store officers, and parking lot patrols all play a role in comprehensive retail protection.
Based on the data, here are the evidence-based strategies that leading retailers and security professionals are using to combat retail theft:
The single most effective deterrent against shoplifting is a uniformed security officer on the floor. Their presence signals to potential thieves that the store is actively monitored and incidents will be addressed.
Security cameras, electronic article surveillance (EAS), license plate readers, and remote video monitoring create overlapping layers of detection and deterrence.
Store layout modifications — improved sight lines, strategic product placement, better lighting — reduce opportunities for theft. Security professionals often advise on these changes as part of a comprehensive security risk assessment.
With violence increasing 17%, retailers must prioritize employee safety over merchandise recovery. Clear policies, de-escalation training, and the presence of professional security officers protect employees from dangerous confrontations.
Professional security teams document incidents, identify repeat offenders, and share intelligence — creating a knowledge base that improves prevention over time.
"Retail theft prevention comes down to three things: presence, awareness, and response. A trained officer who knows how to read body language, position themselves at high-theft areas, and de-escalate confrontations will do more to reduce shrinkage than any amount of locked display cases. The technology matters, but the human element is what makes it all work."
— Amanda DeAlmeida, Executive Vice President, Building Security Services
Building Security Services provides trained retail security officers and loss prevention specialists for stores, malls, and shopping centers throughout NYC and New Jersey.
Get a Free Retail Security Assessment →All statistics are sourced from the National Retail Federation's annual surveys, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, NYPD CompStat data, and established retail industry research organizations. The NRF's 2025 report represented retailers with $1.3 trillion in annual sales. All figures are the most recent available as of February 2026.
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